Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents higher on Monday. USDA announced two large private export sales this morning. Japanese importers purchased 110,800 MT of corn, and a sale of 207,140 MT was made to unknown destinations. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 31.76 mbu of corn shipped on the week ending 9/24. That was 1.61 mbu more week to week and 15.15 mbu above the same week last year. Mexico and China were the top destinations, with 303,192 MT and 274,205 MT respectively. Accumulated corn exports were 109.57 mbu through the 24th. That is 79% above last year’s pace. The average of analyst estimates is for 2.266 bbu of corn stocks on Sept 1. The Grain Stocks report will be out on Wednesday. NASS reported 75% of corn was mature as of 9/27, with 15% cut. The trade was expecting between 15-20% of the crop to be harvested in the weekly update. Corn harvest in NE is 4% points ahead of average and ahead by 7 ppts in IA, but 9 points behind average in IL and 4 points behind in OH. NASS showed corn conditions were 61% good/ex. The Brugler500 Index was UNCH from last week. Coceral lowered its EU plus Britain corn production estimate 1.8 MMT to 62.8 citing dryness.

Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.75 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

May 21 Corn closed at $3.81, up 2 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn closed at $3.85, up 2 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month soybean futures were lower on Monday, closing with losses of 1 3/4 to 6 1/4 cents. Meal futures were also lower with a $4.30/ton drop on the day. Bean oil was higher on Monday, closing with 25 to 45 point gains. USDA announced a private export sale for 218,300 MT of beans to unknown purchasers, which had been widely rumored on Friday. Soybean exports from USDA’s weekly update were 44.52 mbu. That was down from 50.7 LW but above the 36.2 mbu from the same week last year. China was the top destination for the exported beans, with 74% of the total. The weekly report had MYTD bean shipments at 178.16 mbu through the week ending Sept 24. Soybean harvest progressed 14% week to week with 20% of this year’s crop out of the fields. That is 5 percent points ahead of average. In IA 30% of soybeans were harvested, compared to their 5-yr average of 8%. NE beans were 27% cut, compared to the 5-yr average of 19%. Condition ratings were a 364 on the Brugler500 index, up 2 points wk/wk. Ahead of USDA’s quarterly grain stocks report, analysts are expecting 578 mbu of soybean stocks on Sept. 1.

Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.96 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.00 1/4, down 6 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $9.96 1/4, down 5 cents,

May 21 Soybeans closed at $9.96, down 3 1/2 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $332.60, down $4.30

Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.29, up $0.45

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Winter wheat closed higher but spring wheat closed in the red on Monday. Chicago wheat closed the session with gains of 5 1/2 to 6 1/4 cents. HRW futures ended the day up by 7 1/4 to 7 1/2 cents. Spring wheat closed the day fractionally to a penny lower. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 563,427 MT of wheat was shipped on the week ending 9/24. That was up 12% both wk/wk and yr/yr. China was the top destination with 33.2% of the total. USDA’s report had 9.221 MMT shipped MYTD. That outpaces last season’s wheat exports by 8.2%. Winter wheat was reported 35% planted as of 9/27. That is 2 percentage points faster than average and up from 20% LW. Emergence is at 10%, also up 2 from the 5-yr average. The average pre-report estimate for Sept 1 wheat stocks is 2.24 bbu. Traders also expect USDA to show wheat production at 1.836 bbu, down 2 mbu from the August estimate. Of that, 65% is expected to be winter and 31% spring.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.50 1/4, up 6 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.82 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.29 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cattle futures shook off the COF report and closed the day with gains of 25 cents to 60 cents. Feeders were mixed but mostly higher, up 32 to 90 cents in the front months with a 17 cent drop in March. The 9/25 Feeder Cattle Index from CME was up $0.38 to $142.61. This week’s cash trade has yet to develop. Last week the bulk of sales was $105 live based and $165 in the beef. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday. Choice boxes were down $1.62 cwt. to $217.72, and Select boxes were 56 cents lower to $206.42. USDA’s estimates Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 118k head. That is below 120k last week but 4,000 head above the same Monday in 2019.

Oct 20 Cattle closed at $107.950, up $0.375,

Dec 20 Cattle closed at $111.650, up $0.250,

Feb 21 Cattle closed at $115.025, up $0.425,

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $140.925, up $0.600

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.100, up $0.950

Jan 21 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.150, up $0.325

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean hog futures closed the first trade day of the week mostly lower. Dec-April futures were 24 to 40 cents lower, while October gained 95 cents to keep close to the cash index. The deferred contracts were within a nickel of UNCH. The week’s Fresh Bacon Index from CME was $14.23 higher to $189.34. That is the highest the index has been since the COVID spike in May, and the highest for September since 2015. The CME Lean Hog Index was $74.53 on 9/24, which was up another $0.83. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was 72 cents lower in the PM update, @ $63.98. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $2.07 stronger to $93.39. Federally inspected hog slaughter for Monday was estimated at 489,000 head. That is 11,000 head higher wk/wk and up 4,000 from the same Monday last year.

Oct 20 Hogs closed at $72.700, up $0.950,

Dec 20 Hogs closed at $64.025, down $0.400

Feb 21 Hogs closed at $68.700, down $0.775

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



After a wide-ranging session, front month cotton futures ended Monday 26 to 28 points in the red. For Dec, futures traded from plus 65 points to minus 75 points or a 1.4 cent intraday range. After the close, NASS reported 66% of cotton had open bolls, up from 57% LW and even with average. Harvest was 13% completed as of 9/27. That is up from 11% last week and 1 percentage point behind the 5-yr average pace. Texas cotton harvest was reported at 22% compared to the 5-yr average of 18%. Cotton condition ratings scored a 316 on the Brugler500 index, which was down 3 wk/wk. Big drops were noted in VA, NC, AL, and LA and GA. In Georgia, cotton conditions fell 13 points to a 360 on the index. The Cotlook A index was back up by 15 points for Sept 25, to 70.75 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 50.45 cents/lb, the week’s LDP is 1.55 cents.

Oct 20 Cotton closed at 64.4, down 26 points,

Dec 20 Cotton closed at 65.69, down 26 points

Mar 21 Cotton closed at 66.38, down 28 points

May 21 Cotton closed at 67.09, down 26 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






<p>Market Commentary provided by:<br /> <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /><br /> Brugler Marketing &amp; Management LLC<br /> 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022<br /> Phone: 402-697-3623<br /> Fax: 402-289-2353<br /> E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a><br /> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a></p> <p align="center"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w:PunctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:DoNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> 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