May Nymex natural gas (NGK25) on Wednesday closed down by -0.082 (-2.46%).

May nat-gas prices on Wednesday tumbled to a 2-1/2 month low and settled moderately lower.  The outlook for warm spring US temperatures that will curb heating demand and allow nat-gas inventories to rebuild is weighing on prices.  The Commodity Weather Group said Wednesday that forecasts shifted warmer for the east, the west, and the Plains for April 21-25.  

Last month, nat-gas rallied to a 2-year high on signs that US nat-gas storage levels could remain tight ahead of the summer air-conditioning season.  BloombergNEF projects that US gas storage will be 10% below the five-year average this summer.

Lower-48 state dry gas production Wednesday was 105.2  bcf/day (+5.2 y/y), according to BNEF.  Lower-48 state gas demand Wednesday was 73.7 bcf/day (+10.9% y/y), according to BNEF.  LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals Wednesday were 15.6 bcf/day (-6.4% w/w), according to BNEF.

An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers.  The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended April 12 rose +6.4% y/y to 73,420 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending April 12 rose +3.7% y/y to 4,247,718 GWh.

In a bullish longer-term factor for nat-gas prices, President Trump lifted the Biden administration's pause on approving gas export projects in January, thus moving into active consideration a backlog of about a dozen LNG export projects.  Increased US capacity for exporting LNG would boost demand for US nat-gas and support nat-gas prices.

The consensus is that Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories will climb by +26 bcf, below the five-year average for this time of year of +50 bcf.

Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended April 4 rose +57 bcf, close to expectations of +58 bcf and well above the 5-year average draw for this time of year for a +17 bcf build.  As of April 4, nat-gas inventories were down -19.8% y/y and -2.1% below their 5-year seasonal average, signaling tight nat-gas supplies.  In Europe, gas storage was 35% full as of April 12, versus the 5-year seasonal average of 46% full for this time of year.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending April 11 rose +1 to 97 rigs, modestly above the 3-1/2 year low of 94 rigs posted on September 6, 2024.  Active rigs have fallen since posting a 5-1/4 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022, up from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).