Is Big Tech Adapting to the Trade War?

Amazon shopping app on phone by lucielang via iStock

At President Trump's inauguration, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Amazon's Jeff Bezos, Tesla's Elon Musk, and Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, among others, were in the front row. Many interpreted this as a sign that Trump intended to prioritize business, specifically large U.S. corporations.  

Among the policies expected to benefit the domestic business sector was the proposal to reduce the federal corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%. While that has not materialized, across-the-board tariffs targeting countries that complicate business for U.S. companies have.  

As for the impact it has already had, investors will be closely watching the quarterly results of Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple this week. Particular attention will be paid to the outlook for Apple and Amazon stock performance, especially with regard to costs related to the U.S.-China trade war and changes in profitability.   

In Apple's case, a large share of iPhone production still happens in China, so it’s no surprise that the trade war could pressure its profit margins. The big questions now are how well Apple is shifting production to India and other countries, and how consumers are reacting to possible price hikes.      

It would reassure investors if Apple could prove that its premium brand allows it to pass on costs to customers without hurting demand. Otherwise, its shares could come under pressure and potentially drag down the broader market, as has usually been the case in the past.      

Amazon's retail business, on the other hand, is heavily dependent on Chinese imports. Investors expect a clear plan to mitigate the impact of tariffs, either by restructuring supply chains or streamlining logistics. The strong performance of Amazon Web Services (AWS) could help cushion the blow.      

Overall, if Apple and Amazon demonstrate effective strategies to circumvent the tariffs, it would help maintain investor confidence in the technology market movers. However, if the risks are greater than expected, the market could begin to reassess not only the valuations of these companies but also those of their peers.  

As if investor anxiety over weak forecasts wasn't enough, Amazon's website posted information suggesting that the company was considering adding a “tariff surcharge” line to product prices in response to Trump's actions.

Shortly thereafter, The Washington Post published an article stating that Amazon never seriously considered adding a “tariff line” to its main platform. Some speculate that the move was more of a signal to the administration, saying that the trade war hurts businesses and should be resolved as soon as possible. 

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