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August Lean Hogs opened higher and up ticked to the high at 104.875. The open was at the rising 50-DMA now at 104.80 and just above the key level at 104.35. Price turned lower and raced to the low of the day at 102.70. It consolidated near the low for the rest of the session and settled near the low at 103.225. The breakdown took price to another new low for the down move, settling below the critical 50-DMA. This is a critical development for Hogs and if not quickly reversed, could lead to increased selling from longs if fear and panic builds. Hogs are showing technical weakness as the short-term moving averages are now heading lower. The cutout is trying to stabilize while the cash market drifts lower. We are in a period where it is expected to see stronger slaughter levels and weakening cash. Exports remain erratic, are lower than last year with the USDA looking for weakness in exports going forward, in my opinion. This could keep the pressure on the Hog market if the consumer isn’t able to make up the difference in demand. We’ll see!... If Hogs can hold settlement, it could rebound and work its way back to re-test resistance at 104.35 and then the rising 50-DMA. A failure from settlement could see price test support at 101.975. Support then comes in at 100.075.

The Pork Cutout Index increased and is at 112.98 as of 07/11/2025. 

The Lean Hog Index ticked lower and is at 107.10 as of 07/10/2025.

Estimated Slaughter for Monday is 477,000, which is below last week’s 478,000 and above last year’s 474,933.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

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