Yesterday’s Settlement: 63.96, up +0.08 [+0.13%]

Futures opened the Sunday night session at 63.48 [-0.40, -0.63%] from Friday’s 1:30pm settlement, but near Friday’s 4pm closing trades. September futures leaked lower until a bottom was found at 63.02 near 8pm. 

From the 63.02 low, futures rallied into, and through the US open, making the daily high around 9am at 64.44 [+0.56, +0.89%]. President Trump spoke at an oval office press conference where his comments around Friday’s planned meeting with Putin spooked markets, spurred selling through the rest of the morning.

The Dollar showed outsized strength through the day which also aided in the weakness seen in Crude Oil. 

Prices will likely have a lid on the upside until we get through this Trump-Putin meeting on Friday. With the possibility for eased sanctions and maybe a ceasefire in play, traders will be weary of taken open-ended risk on the upside into the meeting.

Today: 63.90 down -0.06 [-0.09%]

Crude futures have traded either side of unchanged through the night session, making a post settlement high of 64.34 around 5:00am. Asian markets traded risk-on, eased by the US tariff truce extension announced yesterday. Chinese equities reacted more positively than their US counterparts. 

Traders are awaiting CPI data this morning which will give clues as to how free the Fed is to operate moving forward. Powell has been clear that they are mainly labor dependent, and with the large revisions to jobs figures we’ve seen over the past couple weeks, soft inflation numbers could open the door for the Fed to begin easing. 

Once we get through the CPI figure eyes will turn towards Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. 

Again, with the possibility of a ceasefire or eased sanctions on the table – taking open ended risk from the long-side is a risky bet. We’d like to get through CPI, through Friday’s meeting, and then recalibrate on our directional bias. Risk is two sided at this point in time despite cash markets being tight.  

Technical Analysis:

June 24th lows, our longer-term pivot and point of balance, held last week but futures could not muster a rally yesterday. Price action following today’s CPI report will be telling.

Fairly significant chart repair is needed before we regain our same confidence from the bull-side. The risk of a ceasefire will weigh on markets throughout the week, limiting upside risk. While fundamentals continue to tilt bullish, we’re more cautious on our bias at these levels as risk looks more two-sided.

We are trading into major support at 63.15*** which we’ve held as our longer-term pivot point for some time. We really want to see a settlement above this level today.  

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance are set at…

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